(Photo by David Wyngard)
Champions League First Leg Overview and Rest of Tournament Simulation
The first leg of this year’s Champions League knockout stage is in the books, with the ties very much still all to play for some teams (apart from you Sporting, you might as well pack your bags already), in the return fixtures. I put these games to the test in the number one best-selling football game, FIFA 22, to see who EA think has the best chance of going through and who could possibly go on and win the whole thing. Before we get started, just a quick note that in their almighty wisdom, UEFA decided to scrap the away goals rule from European ties for some reason and this will have a big impact on how teams are going to approach these second legs. The magic of scraping through on away goals like Manchester United did in Paris, or like Spurs did against Manchester City is all gone now, needing an outright result over the two games. Let’s have a look at the results of the first leg for each matchup and have an initial prediction for who I think will go through, as opposed to what EA simulate the scores to be.
First Leg Scores: | My Prediction for the Second Leg: | FIFA 22 Predictions of Second Leg: |
Paris Saint-Germain 1-0 Real Madrid | Real Madrid 1-2 Paris Saint-Germain (1-3 on aggregate) | Real Madrid 2-1 Paris Saint-Germain (2-2 on aggregate, PSG win on pens) |
Sporting CP 0-5 Manchester City | Manchester City 6-0 Sporting CP (11-0 on aggregate) | Manchester City 3-0 Sporting CP (8-0 on aggregate) |
FC Red Bull Salzburg 1-1 FC Bayern München | FC Bayern München 3-1 FC Red Bull Salzburg (4-2 on aggregate) | FC Bayern München 4-1 FC Red Bull Salzburg (5-2 on aggregate) |
Internazionale 0-2 Liverpool | Liverpool 1-0 Internazionale (3-0 on aggregate) | Liverpool 1-2 Internazionale (3-2 on aggregate) |
Chelsea 2-0 Lille | Lille 1-3 Chelsea (1-5 on aggregate) | Lille 1-1 Chelsea (1-3 on aggregate) |
Villarreal 1-1 Juventus | Juventus 2-1 Villarreal (3-2 on aggregate) | Juventus 1-0 Villarreal (2-1 on aggregate) |
Atlético De Madrid 1-1 Manchester United | Manchester United 2-1 Atlético De Madrid (3-2 on aggregate) | Manchester United 1-0 Atlético De Madrid (2-1 on aggregate) |
Benfica 2-2 Ajax | Ajax 3-2 Benfica (5-4 on aggregate) | Ajax 3-2 Benfica (5-4 on aggregate) |
Comparing these results to my initial predictions, the final results of who goes through to the next round remains the exact same between mine and EA’s predictions. Me and FIFA 22 even share the exact same prediction when it comes to the clash of Ajax and Benfica. The form of Sebastian Haller cannot be ignored, managing to score at either end for Ajax or Benfica alike, nothing seems to be stopping the Ivorian talisman in his incredible Champions League campaign this season. With 11 goals in 7 games this season, I predict (and EA too), that his goalscoring form will continue and fire Ajax into the next round.
The only matches that differs from my prediction is that EA think that Inter will cause an upset on the night at Anfield and sneak a win on the night, only for them to still crash out over the two games. In all fairness to FIFA, from what I saw in the first leg of Inter v Liverpool, Inter were incredibly unlucky to leave that game with a 2-0 loss, as they performed admirably and put the Liverpool defence under a lot of pressure, so a result at Anfield wouldn’t completely surprise me. On top of this, EA predict that Lille will hold Chelsea to a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture, a result that I disagree with as I think that Chelsea will be simply too strong for this, and I think they will still walk away with a win from this game. Despite Chelsea’s seemingly lack of a recognised striker in red hot form, Chelsea still seem to be squeezing out these wins with performances from Havertz, Pulisic and Kante in particular being crucial to their success. Whether they will be able to replicate their success from last season remains to be seen, but you can never rule it out.
After simulating these results, let’s do a random draw done by a randomiser app in order to simulate the potential next games and see who we think stands the best chance of making it all the way to the final.
Randomised Draw for the Quarter Finals:
Manchester City v Paris Saint-Germain
Liverpool v Manchester United
Juventus v Chelsea
Ajax v Bayern
Wow. Some huge draws made by the computer here. A big money showdown with City and PSG, a historic rivalry renewed on the European stage between Manchester United and Liverpool, two of the highest scoring teams in the competition duking it out with Ajax and Bayern, as well as a clash of two mastermind tacticians in Juventus’ Allegri and Chelsea’s Tuchel. I have a pretty solid idea of who I think would go through from each tie, but it will be interesting to see whether FIFA agrees with me or not.
My Prediction for the Quarter Finals First Leg: | FIFA 22’s Prediction for the Quarter Finals First Leg: |
Manchester City 2-1 Paris Saint-Germain | Manchester City 0-2 Paris Saint-Germain |
Liverpool 3-1 Manchester United | Liverpool 1-2 Manchester United |
Juventus 0-2 Chelsea | Juventus 4-0 Chelsea |
Ajax 2-4 Bayern Munich | Ajax 2-1 Bayern Munich |
Well. We couldn’t have been any further apart. Every single result that I predicted has been disputed by the minds of EA Sports, clearly disputing my knowledge of football. It will be very interesting to see the second leg results and see whether we agree or disagree on who goes through to the semi-finals. Immediately I was shocked when I saw these results, no way would I have bet on Juventus putting four past Chelsea, especially given the fact that it was in fact Chelsea that put four past Juventus when they met in the group stage earlier on in the campaign. Whilst Bayern have suffered some shock defeats in the Bundesliga recently, I wouldn’t have put Ajax to beat them in the first leg, it is possible don’t get me wrong, but the experience of this Bayern team tends to come through to the front nearly always when playing in these big pressure European fixtures. After a 5-0 thumping, at home nonetheless, earlier on in the season I find it very hard to believe that Manchester United have what it takes to defeat Liverpool at Anfield based on current form. It all would come down to those big players and how they turn up on the day. Ronaldo and the Champions League go hand in hand so I can see why EA Sports would predict for him to have an impact, but I am a bit more sceptical. And to round off the first leg predictions, I personally think that Manchester City are the best football team in the world right now, and even with the impressive front three of Messi, Mbappe and Neymar, I struggle to see Guardiola lose this one, even if he has struggled in the past when it comes to City and European success.
My Prediction for the Quarter Finals Second Leg:
| FIFA 22’s Prediction for the Quarter Finals Second Leg: |
Paris Saint-Germain 1-2 Manchester City (2-4 on aggregate) | Paris Saint-Germain 1-3 Manchester City (3-3 on aggregate, Man City win on pens) |
Manchester United 1-1 Liverpool (2-4 on aggregate) | Manchester United 3-1 Liverpool (5-2 on aggregate) |
Chelsea 1-1 Juventus (3-1 on aggregate) | Chelsea 1-0 Juventus (1-4 on aggregate) |
Bayern Munich 3-1 Ajax (7-3 on aggregate) | Bayern Munich 1-0 Ajax (2-2 on aggregate, Ajax win on pens) |
So after all of the simulation, my final four are Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea, and Bayern Munich. Whereas FIFA has decided that the final four should be Manchester City, Manchester United, Juventus and Ajax. So we both agree on only one team that will go through being Manchester City. Defending champions Chelsea will bow out according to FIFA, as well as two of the big favourites being knocked out in FIFA’s eyes. Back to the randomiser app in order to simulate the draw of our semi-finals.
My Semi Final Draw:
Liverpool v Bayern Munich
Manchester City v Chelsea
FIFA 22’s Semi Final Draw:
Ajax v Manchester City
Juventus v Manchester United
Ok things are starting to heat up now. In my bracket, a replay of last year’s final will be happening in the semis, as Manchester City try and get revenge for their loss in the final last year to Tuchel’s Chelsea. Whereas in the other tie Klopp will be facing familiar opposition in German giants Bayern, a game that is bound to be full of goals. In FIFA’s bracket we have some intriguing matchups, will high scoring Ajax be able to penetrate one of the sturdiest defences in world football? And will Ronaldo come back to haunt his old club as he returns to Turin as United face Juventus.
My Prediction of My Semi Finals First Leg | FIFA 22’s Prediction of My Semi Finals First Leg | My Prediction of FIFA 22’s Semi Finals First Leg | FIFA 22’s Prediction of FIFA 22’s Semi Finals First Leg |
Liverpool 3-1 Bayern Munich | Liverpool 0-1 Bayern Munich | Ajax 1-4 Manchester City | Ajax 1-3 Manchester City |
Manchester City 2-1 Chelsea | Manchester City 0-1 Chelsea | Juventus 0-0 Manchester United | Juventus 0-1 Manchester United |
In my bracket I’m certain I’m going to end up with the fixture that I touted would be the final before the group stage even got underway, Liverpool v Manchester City. Perhaps the first leg could be a bit closer between Liverpool and Bayern, but either a 2-1 or 3-1 is the prediction I’m going for here. I think City and Chelsea will be another cagey affair like their final last year, having minimal chances but both teams making the very most out of them. Whereas in FIFA’s simulation, our predictions are rather similar in terms of goals scored, only being a couple out. They pencil United to prevail in Turin, as well as my prediction of a decent win for City in Amsterdam. In terms of how they view my fixtures, again we completely differ, as they have Bayern and Chelsea edging the first legs. Very much still all to play for in the second leg.
My Prediction of My Semi Finals Second Leg | FIFA 22’s Prediction of My Semi Finals Second Leg | My Prediction of FIFA 22’s Semi Finals Second Leg | FIFA 22’s Prediction of FIFA 22’s Semi Finals Second Leg |
Bayern Munich 1-1 Liverpool (2-4 on aggregate) | Bayern Munich 1-0 Liverpool (2-0 on aggregate) | Manchester City 3-0 Ajax (7-1 on aggregate) | Manchester City 2-0 Ajax (5-1 on aggregate) |
Chelsea 1-1 Manchester City (2-3 on aggregate) | Chelsea 0-1 Manchester City (1-1 on aggregate, City win on pens) | Manchester United 1-0 Juventus (1-0 on aggregate) | Manchester United 2-1 Juventus (3-1 on aggregate) |
Looking at these Semi Finals, on my bracket we differ on the Liverpool and Bayern Munich result, for me setting up that Liverpool v City final, against FIFA’s Munich v City final. With City managing to be a consistent factor between all of our predictions. On FIFA’s bracket, oh boy. We have a Manchester Derby final on our hands. Something as a United fan that I desperately do not want. Will Europe be red or blue in both finals? Let’s find out.
My Prediction of My Final | FIFA 22’s Prediction of My Final | My Prediction of FIFA 22’s Final | FIFA 22’s Prediction of FIFA 22’s Final |
Manchester City 2-1 Liverpool | Manchester City 1-2 Liverpool | Manchester City 3-1 Manchester United | Manchester City 2-1 Manchester United |
And ladies and gentlemen we have our winners. The overwhelming consensus is that Manchester City will walk away from Paris with the Champions League trophy in May, with them being seen as the winner in 3 of the 4 scenarios. Whereas I predicted Manchester City in both ties put before me, FIFA thinks that Liverpool could best City on the night in my bracket, with City beating United as I predicted in their bracket. We will have to come back to these predictions in the coming rounds to see how close or far we are away from the actuality of the situation. I could see either City or Liverpool walking away with it and we will have to see who knows ball more, a 23 year old man, or the most successful sports game in the world.
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